HORMUZ: IS TRUMP PREPARING THE FINAL CHAPTER?

Victor Davis Hanson argues that the approaching US midterm elections are efecting President Donald Trump’s options and may force Washington to seek a rapid conclusion to the conflict with Iran.

Victor Davis Hanson is an American historian, classicist and political commentator known for applying the lessons of military history to contemporary politics. One of the most practically minded intellectuals in the Anglosphere, he combines historical perspective with a direct assessment of political power. At Analog Brief, we regard Victor Davis Hanson as one of our go-to authorities on US foreign policy, domestic politics and military affairs. Why? Because his education and experience give him a depth of knowledge—and a practical understanding of power—that few contemporary intellectuals possess.

Going back to the main topic: nearly 140 days have passed since the United States first attacked Iran on 28 February. According to Victor Davis Hanson, only the first 40 days represented sustained military operations. Since then, the conflict has largely shifted towards negotiations, interrupted by limited exchanges of missiles and drones.

In the analysis published by The Daily Signal, Hanson argues that the struggle is now being shaped as much by the American political calendar as by developments on the battlefield.

The Trump administration has three principal objectives: preventing Iran from producing a nuclear weapon, stopping its missile attacks against Gulf states, and ensuring freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz.

None of these objectives has yet been conclusively achieved. Iran retains the ability to threaten neighbouring countries, the Strait of Hormuz remains contested, and the location and status of Iran’s enriched uranium remain uncertain.

Hanson believes that Iran’s strategy is therefore based on time. Tehran does not necessarily need to defeat the United States militarily. It needs to survive long enough for political circumstances in Washington to change.

TRUMP’S POLITICAL CALCULATION

Trump must therefore balance two competing requirements. He needs to demonstrate that the United States has achieved its strategic objectives, but he also wants to avoid entering the midterm elections with an open-ended conflict dominating American politics.

Iran understands this pressure. Every additional week brings the conflict closer to the elections and reduces Washington’s freedom of action.

Hanson argues that favourable economic conditions may give the president some room to act. Inflation has moderated, unemployment remains relatively low, economic growth is positive, and the stock market is performing strongly. The administration also expects tax cuts, deregulation, increased energy production and foreign investment to support the economy.

A SHORTER AND MORE INTENSE CAMPAIGN

Hanson interprets the recent intensification of American strikes as evidence that Trump is entering the final phase of his strategy.

He expects Washington to spend one or two weeks systematically attacking Iran’s remaining military capabilities. Potential targets would include missile-production facilities, launch sites, drone bases, naval infrastructure and the small vessels Iran could use to attack tankers or lay mines in the Strait of Hormuz.

The objective would be to make Iran incapable of seriously threatening the Gulf states or disrupting maritime traffic.

If Tehran still refused to concede, Hanson believes the United States could expand its campaign to dual-use infrastructure. This might include bridges, elements of the electricity network and suspected underground locations connected to Iran’s enriched uranium.

After weakening Iran, Trump could declare the immediate military objectives achieved, withdraw most American forces from active operations and transfer greater responsibility to regional and international allies.

SHIFTING THE BURDEN TO AMERICA’S ALLIES

Hanson’s analysis also reflects Trump’s broader approach to alliances and burden-sharing. The Gulf states possess hundreds of advanced combat aircraft, missile systems and air defences. European countries, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan all depend to varying degrees on energy and commercial traffic passing through the Strait of Hormuz.

Hanson explains that these countries could therefore contribute naval forces to keeping the waterway open. The United States would continue to provide leadership and maintain a regional military presence, but it would no longer carry the burden alone.

This would allow Trump to tell American voters that Iran had been rendered militarily and ineffective in nuclear term, international shipping had been protected, and US forces were coming home.

THE ISRAELI DETERRENT

Hanson identifies Israel as the final and potentially decisive element in the calculation. Iran has attacked Arab states across the Gulf, yet it has so far avoided opening another direct front against Israel. Hanson interprets this as evidence that Israeli deterrence is working.

Israel has had time to replenish its weapons, strengthen its intelligence networks and prepare new target lists. Hanson claims that Iran understands an attack on Israel could bring Israeli forces directly into the conflict alongside the United States, exposing additional Iranian military and political leaders to attack.

Tehran may therefore consider strikes against Gulf states less dangerous than provoking a combined American-Israeli campaign.

WHY THIS MATTERS

If the conflict can be brought to an end and the Strait of Hormuz secured, the world economy could enter a period of greater stability. Lower geopolitical risk would reduce pressure on oil prices, shipping costs and insurance premiums, helping to ease inflation—and potentially creating deflationary pressure—across Europe, the United States and other major economies. For ordinary citizens, this could mean cheaper fuel, lower transport and production costs, slower growth in food prices, and greater predictability for household finances, investment and employment.

Source: Victor Davis Hanson, “Trump Has Just Weeks Left to Finish the Iran Conflict,” The Daily Signal