IRAN’S STRATEGY: DELAY UNTIL THE MIDTERMS

Victor Davis Hanson (VDH) of The Daily Signal argues that Iran is using negotiations to gain time. Tehran reportedly hopes that continued disruption to global shipping, rising fuel prices and growing American fatigue with the conflict will weaken the Republican position ahead of the 3 November midterm elections.

The Trump administration appears to be pursuing the opposite strategy: continuing negotiations while maintaining sanctions, financial restrictions and the blockade. According to VDH, these measures are costing Iran between $400 million and $500 million per day, steadily reducing Tehran’s ability to sustain the confrontation.

VDH predicts that Iran may attempt an “October surprise” shortly before the elections—possibly by attacking Israel, Gulf states, commercial shipping or a US carrier.

The central contest is now over time: Iran believes the approaching elections will increase its leverage, while Washington believes continued economic pressure will force Tehran to concede first.

WHY THIS MATTERS

The conflict’s next phase may be determined less by developments inside Iran than by the American electoral calendar. Any major escalation before November could affect energy prices, global trade and control of the US Congress.

Source: Victor Davis Hanson (VDH), The Daily Signal, 11 August 2026.

Why Victor Davis Hanson? Because he is a renowned military historian and political commentator whose analysis connects battlefield strategy with America’s domestic political realities.