OIL, WAR, AND THE NEXT DOMINO
By Laszlo Enyedi • April 21, 2026
The world economy remains fixed on one central issue: the confrontation between the United States and Iran. What happens there is central to the world.
Oil prices continue to move with unusual volatility. Each new signal—talks of negotiation, hints of escalation, the prospect of blockade or unblocking—feeds directly into the market. Prices are no longer reacting only to physical supply, but to expectations of what may happen next.
These fluctuations do not remain contained within energy markets. Oil sits at the base of the global economy. When its price shifts sharply, the effect spreads outward—into transport, production, and ultimately into the cost of everyday life.
At the same time, another dynamic is unfolding. The easing of restrictions on Russia oil has allowed it to re-enter global trade more freely. This provides the Kremlin with critical revenue, sustaining its capacity to continue the war in Ukraine.
What emerges is a system under pressure from multiple directions: instability in the Gulf, prolonged conflict in Eastern Europe, and an energy market that transmits shocks rapidly and globally.