Nearly eight months after the outbreak of war with Iran, one thing has become clear: despite disruptions to global energy markets and supply chains, the energy system has proved remarkably resilient. Yet resilience does not necessarily mean a return to what was once considered normal. Although Gulf producers have every reason to seek at least a de-escalation of the conflict, there is little sign of a lasting settlement.
The Tisza government has rejected a return to Hungary’s previous fuel price cap, but high diesel prices have nevertheless forced it to intervene. According to the prime minister’s announcement, owners of diesel cars with a maximum output of 150 horsepower will receive HUF 5,000 per month until December, while the agricultural sector will be able to reclaim the full excise duty on diesel.
Hungary’s ability to modernise its energy system will depend as much on the government’s economic choices as on its technical ambitions, making the 2027 budget the first real test of whether the country can finance a more secure and competitive energy future.
The oil market initially treated the closure of the Strait of Hormuz as a crisis that economic self-interest would contain. But the Houthi threat to shipping in the Red Sea changed that calculation: with two strategic chokepoints now at risk, markets could no longer assume that disruption would remain limited.
Only weeks after the United States and Iran announced an interim agreement and the Strait of Hormuz reopened, the conflict has returned. However, the Strait has not been formally closed again, yet there is more in the background.
As the new government of Hungary seeks to place the country’s economy to a new path, three structural challenges are likely to shape the year ahead.
Hungary's energy system appears stable, but stability should not be mistaken for security. Behind that stability lie three strategic vulnerabilities that will shape the country's energy future far more than today's headlines.
Eastern Europe's competing energy strategies reveal that in the end, geography—not politics—will shape the region's energy security.
The European energy market is gradually settling into a new reality. Gas storage levels across Eastern Europe continue to improve, cross-border bottlenecks are easing, and the continent has largely adapted to reduced Russian gas supplies. Yet this adaptation has come at a cost. Greater security has become a permanent component of energy pricing, while uncertainty surrounding fuel and gas supply has gradually become embedded in the market itself.
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